Heavy Rain and Potential Flood Threat Continues

This comes from the City of Watkinsville

Sincerely, 

Dan Matthews

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Subject:Heavy Rain and Potential Flood Threat Continues
Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2013 19:56:24 -0500
From: jsanders@cityofwatkinsville.com
To:.

From: Karla Hulsey [mailto:khulsey@oconee.ga.us]
Sent: Monday, February 11, 2013 1:56 PM
To: Janice Wilson
Subject: FW: Heavy Rain and Potential Flood Threat Continues
Importance: High

From: Karla Hulsey
Sent: Monday, February 11, 2013 1:44 PM
To: ALL;
Subject: Heavy Rain and Potential Flood Threat Continues
Importance: High

Good afternoon, everyone.  Please see below for information concerning the heavy rain and possible flooding headed our way.  We will send out more information as we get it.  As always, stay safe and be alert to changing weather conditions. 

Thanks, Karla

Karla Hulsey

Oconee County Fire Rescue / EMA

P. O. Box 145

Watkinsville, GA 30677

P-706-310-3600

F-706-310-3609

www.oconeecounty.com

The difficult can be done immediately, the impossible takes time.

Wet pattern with flood concerns continue through Wednesday.

Overview:A slow moving cold front moving across the forecast area this afternoon will continue to sag southward and into South Georgia overnight. This front will drift back north as a warm front Tuesday afternoon-evening as an area of low pressure develops over the northwest Gulf… then tracks eastward into central Georgia by Wednesday morning. The surface low and associated cold front will finally push east of the state Wednesday night… with a much drier air mass in its wake for Thursday and Friday. Computer models still agree on at least another two rounds of potentially heavy rain through Wednesday. The first round comes this afternoon and overnight as the mid-level front (850mb front) remains parked over the area and provides a focus for moderate to heavy rainfall. The second round comes Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday as the aforementioned surface low approaches… then pushes across the state. Although isolated thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday… especially across the more unstable central Georgia… no severe storms are expected at this time. See http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/  for SPC's 3 day outlook.

Main concern continues to be heavy rainfall and the potential for flood problems along rivers…streams and low lying flood prone areas. With grounds already saturated from rains overnight and this morning… where north Georgia received 0.75 to 1.75 inches and central Georgia 1.5 to 2.5 inches… longer term river and stream flooding is becoming more of a threat as area rivers and streams are on the rise. Although there is still some uncertainty with exact rainfall amounts and specific locations… model guidance continues to target mainly central Georgia with the higher 2 to 4 inches from this evening through Wednesday… with far north Georgia possibly getting another 0.5 to 1.0 inch.  For expected rainfall totals… see HPC's 1-3 day precipitation graphics at…  http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif.

Main Impact:Heavy Rain and Flooding - The expected rainfall amounts through Wednesday suggest the greater flood threat is shifting from far north Georgia and more into central Georgia where another 2 to 4 inches is expected. Although far north Georgia will need to be monitored closely… the main concern appears to be along and south of a Cedartown to Alpharetta to Athens line where the greater potential for the training of heavier rain showers exist. Therefore… we have replaced the Flash Flood Watch for north Georgia with a new Flood Watch that includes the Atlanta metro area and areas south into central Georgia. This watch goes through Wednesday morning to cover the active period of expected heavy rain.

Please see the attached graphic for a geographical depiction of hazards. Keep in mind that there is still some uncertainty with timing and overall amounts, but this graphic does reflect current thinking as of Monday afternoon.